To reveal the evolution law of navigation operations at the Three Gorges Hub,this study systematically analyzes its operational characteristics from the aspects of shipping throughput,number of passing vessels,lock operation times,navigation availability rate,and tonnage of vessels passing through the locks.On this basis,combined with historical shipping and regional economic data,dummy variables reflecting the impact of sudden events such as the COVID-19 pandemic are introduced to construct a multiple linear regression model for forecasting future shipping throughput.The results indicate that since the commencement of navigation,the annual growth rate of shipping throughput at the Three Gorges has reached as high as 16.6%,and slowed notably to 3.6% after 2011.The ratio of upstream to downstream throughput has gradually evolved from 3:7 in 2004 to approximately 5:5 in recent years.The shipping hinterland is concentrated in six provinces and municipalities,namely Chongqing,Jiangsu,Hubei,Sichuan,Shanghai and Anhui.The operation efficiency of the ship locks has been continuously improved,with a navigation availability rate stably above 93%,more than 11,000 lockages per year,and an average tonnage per lockage exceeding 22,000 tonnes.The locks have been operating in a state of high efficiency and full load,with their passing capacity approaching the limit.Model predictions show that shipping throughput will reach 267 million tonnes by 2035,which is consistent with the forecast range of 240-290 million tonnes for the proposed Three Gorges New Waterway,demonstrating the urgent need to accelerate its construction.The research findings can provide a reference for navigation issues of the Three Gorges and other similar large-scale navigation hubs.