基于工程统计信息的海外港口建设项目风险识别*
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国家自然科学基金资助项目(52078101)


Risk identification of overseas port construction projects based on engineering statistical information
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    摘要:

    针对海外港口建设项目风险因素复杂、风险辨析与管理困难的问题,开展了风险识别、风险等级评估、风险趋势分析和风险相关性研究。采用工程统计信息提取方法和定量分析方法,从73个海外港口建设项目中提取了24个风险事件,计算得到每个风险事件的发生概率、处理成本和工期延误,并绘制发展趋势图。应用条件概率计算和回归分析法,判断风险事件的相关性,得到3个风险链。研究结果表明,极端高温、潮汐变化、业主变更、进口受限和沉箱出运安装为高风险事件。自2017年以来,自然风险和社会环境风险的发生概率呈现上升趋势,极端高温风险的处理成本明显提高,业主风险和社会风险造成的工期延误显著增加。中方的项目管理人员可以采用完善合同细节、加强前期规划讨论、配合设计制定材料代换方案等方法,控制风险链中的头部节点,遏制风险的扩散和传播。

    Abstract:

    In response to the complex risk factors and difficulties in risk identification and management in overseas port construction projects,risk identification,risk level assessment,risk trend analysis,and risk correlation research have been conducted.Engineering statistical information extraction and quantitative analysis methods are adopted to extract 24 risk events from 73 overseas port construction projects.The occurrence probability,processing cost,and project delay of each risk event are calculated to draw a development trend chart.By applying conditional probability calculation and regression analysis methods,the correlation among risk events is determined,and three risk chains are finally obtained.The research results indicate that extreme high temperatures,tidal changes,changes in property owners,import restrictions,and caisson transportation and installation are high-risk events.Since 2017,the occurrence probability of natural and social environmental risks has shown an upward trend,the cost of handling extreme heat risks has significantly increased,and the delay in construction caused by owner and social risks has significantly increased.Chinese project managers can use methods such as improving contract details,strengthening preliminary planning discussions,and cooperating with design to develop material substitution plans to control the top nodes in the risk chain and curb the spread and propagation of risks.

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ALOTAIBI Rami Talal T,杜木子,李忠富.基于工程统计信息的海外港口建设项目风险识别*[J].水运工程,2026(4):90-96.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-04-17
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