基于响应面法的重力式船坞边坡稳定性可靠度分析*
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上海市优秀学术/技术带头人项目(23XD1434800)


Stability and reliability analysis of gravity-type dry dock slope based on response surface method
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    摘要:

    土体参数变异性较大时,船坞边坡的整体稳定性常具有较大的不确定性。为了准确地分析船坞边坡的整体稳定性,降低稳定性分析中的不确定性,考虑土体黏聚力和内摩擦角的变异性对船坞边坡进行可靠度分析。通过边坡稳定数值模拟软件Slide基于刚体极限平衡分析得出确定性安全系数,再基于实测船坞边坡土体参数分布采用响应面法和一次二阶矩法对船坞边坡可靠度进行计算。结果表明,基于土体参数标准值的确定性分析得出的安全系数对船坞边坡稳定性的评估较为片面,并不能真实反映边坡的稳定性,基于可靠度分析的边坡稳定性更接近实际情况。实际工程设计、施工中,应当综合考虑边坡安全系数和可靠度。

    Abstract:

    The large variability of soil parameter causes that the overall stability of dock slope often has large uncertainty.The reliability analysis of a dock slope is carried out considering the variability of the soil cohesive force and internal friction angle in order to analyze the overall stability of the dock slope more accurately and reduce the uncertainty in the stability analysis.The slope stability numerical simulation software Slide is used to obtain the deterministic safety factor on the basis of the rigid body limit equilibrium analysis.Then according to the measured soil parameter distribution of the dock slope,the response surface method and the first-order second moment method are used to calculate the reliability of the dock slope.The results show that the safety factor based on the deterministic analysis of the standard value of soil parameters is one-sided to the reliability evaluation of the dock slope,and the stability of slope based on the reliability analysis is closer to the actual situation.In the actual engineering design and construction,the safety factor and reliability of the slope should be considered comprehensively.

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孙东辉,赵庆喜,殷 骏,等.基于响应面法的重力式船坞边坡稳定性可靠度分析*[J].水运工程,2025(4):184-190.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-04-16
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