“十四五”珠三角沿海港口分重点货类吞吐量发展趋势预测*
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国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFB2601300)


Structured trend prediction of cargo throughput of coastal ports in the Pearl River Delta during 14th Five Year Plan
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    摘要:

    在分析珠三角沿海港口主要腹地经济、贸易增长变化和重点产业产品产量变化等基础上,系统回顾港口货物吞吐量、分重点货类吞吐量及其结构性变化特征。基于未来珠三角区域经济、贸易、产业结构变化趋势的判断,针对不同货类特点及适应性,综合选择采用线性回归、非线性回归、曲线拟合、货运强度、弹性系数等多种预测方法,对珠三角沿海港口货物和分货类吞吐量进行分析预测。预计未来,珠三角港口货物吞吐量仍将继续保持增长,2025年货物吞吐量规模在17.0亿t左右,2022—2025年期间年均增速在4%左右,其中集装箱吞吐量将达0.7亿TEU,2022—2025年期间年均增速在3.2%左右。

    Abstract:

    On the basis of analyzing the economic and trade growth changes of the main hinterland ports in the Pearl River Delta,as well as the production changes of key industrial products,this paper systematically reviews the port's cargo throughput,key cargo category throughput,and structural change characteristics.Based on the judgment of the future trend of economic,trade,and industrial structure changes in the Pearl River Delta region,and in response to the characteristics and adaptability of different types of goods,this paper comprehensively selects multiple prediction methods such as linear regression,non-linear regression,curve fitting,freight intensity,and elasticity coefficient to analyze and predict the cargo throughput and classification throughput of coastal ports in the Pearl River Delta.It is expected that in the future,the cargo throughput of the Pearl River Delta ports will continue to grow.The scale of cargo throughput in 2025 will be around 1.70 billion tons,and the average annual growth rate from 2022 to 2025 will be around 4%.Among them,the container throughput will reach 70 million TEUs,and the average annual growth rate from 2022 to 2025 will be around 3.2%.

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刘长俭,钟 鸣,周齐齐,等.“十四五”珠三角沿海港口分重点货类吞吐量发展趋势预测*[J].水运工程,2023(8):14-20.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-08-15
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