长江深水航道经济效用预测的系统动力学模型构建与优化
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Model development and optimization for system dynamics of economic utility prediction of the Yangtze River deepwater navigation channel
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    摘要:

    长江南京以下12.5 m深水航道是提升长江通航能力的一项重大水运工程,可发挥长江黄金水道的重要作用,研究其建成对江苏沿江经济的影响具有十分重要的意义。运用系统动力学方法建立长江深水航道对沿江经济影响模型,依照“港航船货信金六位一体发展理论”,该模型由沿江经济、港口、航道与岸线、金融投资、社会人口等子系统组成。将热力学第二定律的热单向传导和熵增加原理引用到经济发展模型预测中,对模型进行改进和优化。通过模型验证,改进后的模型结果与实际情况更为接近,可用于分析内河航运工程对沿江经济发展的预测工作。

    Abstract:

    The 12.5 m deep navigation channel of the Yangtze River from Nanjing to the Yangtze Estuary is a very important project to elevate the traffic capacity of the river and make the best of the Golden Waterway.It is important to study the influence of its building up on the economic development of Jiangsu province along the river.A model is developed on the basis of system dynamics for the influence of the Yangtze River deepwater navigation channel upon economy along the river.In accordance with the“6-in-1 theory of port,waterway,ships,cargos,information and finance”,the model consists of modules of economy along the river,ports,navigation channel & shorelines,financial investment and population.The model is improved by bringing in the unidirectional heat conduction and entropy increase of the Second Law of Thermodynamics.The result shows a better agreement with the real situation.It could be used to predict the relationship between the navigation channels of long inland rivers and economic development along them.

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杨东利,林志奇.长江深水航道经济效用预测的系统动力学模型构建与优化[J].水运工程,2017(5):1-6.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2017-05-17
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