Freight demand analysis of Pinglu Canal based on construction of comprehensive transport network
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Abstract:
Pinglu Canal is a new inland waterway channel from scratch,and the traditional inland waterway project freight volume prediction method is difficult to apply.Based on the perspective of building comprehensive transport network,we analyze the position of Pinglu Canal in the regional comprehensive transportation system,construct a method system suitable for forecasting the freight volume of new inland waterway transportation channel considering both diversion and inducement freight demand,and analyze the freight volume of Pinglu Canal.It is predicted that in 2035 and 2050,the freight volume of the Pinglu Canal will be 95.5 million tons and 120 million tons respectively,mainly from the traffic transfer of the three existing channels of the Beibu Gulf Port Group's sea-rail intermodal transportation,Beibu Gulf Port's sea-highway intermodal transportation,and the Pearl River Delta Port Group to Xijiang main river river-ocean combined transportation.In the long term,considering the development of the Pinglu Canal Economic Belt and the land cities within the impacted region,it is expected that under the optimistic scenario,the freight volume will reach 150 million tons to 180 million tons by 2050.