Structured trend prediction of cargo throughput of coastal ports in the Pearl River Delta during 14th Five Year Plan
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    Abstract:

    On the basis of analyzing the economic and trade growth changes of the main hinterland ports in the Pearl River Delta,as well as the production changes of key industrial products,this paper systematically reviews the port's cargo throughput,key cargo category throughput,and structural change characteristics.Based on the judgment of the future trend of economic,trade,and industrial structure changes in the Pearl River Delta region,and in response to the characteristics and adaptability of different types of goods,this paper comprehensively selects multiple prediction methods such as linear regression,non-linear regression,curve fitting,freight intensity,and elasticity coefficient to analyze and predict the cargo throughput and classification throughput of coastal ports in the Pearl River Delta.It is expected that in the future,the cargo throughput of the Pearl River Delta ports will continue to grow.The scale of cargo throughput in 2025 will be around 1.70 billion tons,and the average annual growth rate from 2022 to 2025 will be around 4%.Among them,the container throughput will reach 70 million TEUs,and the average annual growth rate from 2022 to 2025 will be around 3.2%.

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刘长俭,钟 鸣,周齐齐,李宜军,高天航,毕珊珊.“十四五”珠三角沿海港口分重点货类吞吐量发展趋势预测*[J].水运工程,2023,(8):14-20

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  • Online: August 15,2023
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