To better analyze the development trend of port transportation demand，this paper structurally decomposes the influencing factors of port throughput and establishes the relationship equations between throughput and gross domestic product （GDP），industrial added value，added value of primary，secondary，and tertiary industries，investment，consumption，and foreign trade volume. Meanwhile，the throughput is subdivided into main cargo categories，and the relationship equations between coal throughput and thermal power generation，crude oil throughput and processing amount of crude oil，iron ore throughput and pig iron output，container throughput and added value of the secondary industry are established. With the combination of prediction models such as regression analysis and elasticity coefficients，this paper predicts that the cargo throughput，as well as coal，crude oil，iron ore，and container throughput of China’s ports will be 17.2 billion tons，2.9 billion tons，0.83 billion tons，2.2 billion tons，and 0.32 billion TEU，respectively，in 2025. The prediction result provides a reference for the development plan of national waterway transport during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.