Analysis of status of Three Gorges dangerous goods lockage transportation and forecast of throughput
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Abstract:
We analyze the status of dangerous goods passing through the Three Gorges ship lock from 2015 to 2020 from three aspects,such as classification,management process and transportation characteristics of dangerous goods,use the EGM(1,1)model to predict the trend of the throughput of flammable and explosive dangerous goods in bulk in the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The results show that most of the dangerous goods are in bulk,flammable and explosive,and most of the dangerous goods are upward. The quantity of the dangerous goods types is decreasing year by year,and has been reduced to 32 in 2020. The predicted throughputs of bulk,flammable and explosive dangerous goods will maintain a slow growth trend in the 14th Five-Year Plan period. By the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan period,the throughputs of bulk,flammable and explosive dangerous goods will respectively reach 11.2 million tons and 8.5 million tons. There are obvious deficiencies in the management of dangerous goods passing through the lock,which need to be solved in the follow-up management,such as insufficient basis for defining flammable and explosive dangerous goods,and fire resistance and explosion resistance of the lock need to be further evaluated.