Correlation analysis of inland waterway shipping demand and industrial structure of hinterland economy
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    Abstract:

    The river shipping demand forecast is the core issue of shipping planning and construction. This paper introduces the concepts of industrial structure coefficient and freight intensity,and analyzes the correlation between freight volume and economic industrial structure of the three golden waterways of the Yangtze River,Rhine River and Mississippi River. The results show that the correlation between freight volume and elasticity coefficient and GDP decreases with the optimization and adjustment of economic structure. The growth rate of elasticity coefficient and freight volume tends to decrease with the increase of industrial structure coefficient,but the correlation is poor;the freight intensity is larger when the industrial structure coefficient is smaller,and the freight intensity decreases with the increase of industrial structure coefficient. The regression analysis method is used to establish the exponential function relationship between freight intensity and industry structure coefficient. Therefore,the correlation between freight intensity and industrial structure coefficient can be used for river shipping demand forecasting,and the influence of industrial structure coefficient can also be considered in selection of economic indicators. The research results provide a support for the forecast of inland river shipping demand growth such as the Yangtze River.

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LI Wen-jie, YU Song-ling, DU Hong-bo, et al. Correlation analysis of inland waterway shipping demand and industrial structure of hinterland economy[J]. Port & Waterway Engineering,2022(4):88-93.

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  • Online: April 07,2022
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