The Fuling to Fengdu reach is an important waterway connecting the upper and lower Yangtze River,so the analysis and prediction of waterway freight volume are of great significance to the construction plan of the waterway.This study proposes the use of freight data of the main ports along the Yangtze River,and calculates the waterway freight and its flow direction based on the location relationship between ports and waterways.Results show that the waterway freight volume of the waterway has increased from 12.41 million tons in 2 000 to 160.44 million tons in 2016,with the proportion of up and down water freight accounting for 66% and 34% respectively,contributes 94% of the freight volume of the Three Gorges Ship Lock,and the main cargo types such as mineral construction materials,ore,steel,coal,oil and containers accounting for 73% of the water freight.It is proposed to use regression analysis method,elastic coefficient method,exponential smoothing method and input-output method to consider the impacts of multiple factors such as the hinterland GDP,industrial structure,and transportation structure on waterway freight volume.The prediction indicates that the waterway freight of the waterway will continue to increase,but the growth rate will gradually slow down.The waterway freight will reach 323.33 million tons in 2045,and the main cargo accounts for 86% of the total waterway freight.The analysis and prediction methods and results of waterway freight in this study can provide support for the construction plan of the waterway.