Abstract:This paper proposed a simulation and evaluation method for the oil spilling risk in the spatial layout of regional oil dock based on the theory of uncertainty analysis.This method can be used to systematically analyze the spatial layout of oil dock along the costal region and figure out the spatial distribution rule of sea-area oil spilling risk caused by the layout,and can also satisfy the technical demand for strategic environmental assessment and environmental risk assessment under the current situation of offshore high-strength exploitation in China.It treated Zhoushan sea area as the research object to evaluate the comprehensive oil spilling risk by analyzing the layout model of oil dock and the uncertainty.The results show that this method can be used to comprehensively analyze the oil spilling risk level of a certain sea area,and can realize comprehensive comparison among sea-area oil spilling risk levels under many kinds of dock layout schemes,and get the optimal scheme for the oil dock layout based on the oil spilling risk probability and the temporal and spatial distribution of pollution damage,and according to the principle that the total risk value is the smallest if the concentration ratio of risk value is maximum.