三峡危险货物过闸运输现状分析及通过量预测
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Analysis of status of Three Gorges dangerous goods lockage transportation and forecast of throughput
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    摘要:

    从过闸危险货物分类、管理流程及运输特征等3个方面分析2015—2020年三峡危险货物过闸运输现状,在此基础上运用灰色均值GM(1,1)模型(EGM)对“十四五”期过闸危险货物通过量进行预测。结果表明,过闸危险货物绝大部分为散装运输和易燃易爆危险货物,其主要流向为上行;过闸危险货物货种数呈逐年减少趋势,2020年过闸危险货物货种数减少至32种;预计“十四五”期间散装危险货物和易燃易爆危险货物通过量仍将呈较缓增长态势,到“十四五”末其通过量分别将达1 120.6万和854.4万t。危险货物过闸管理中也暴露出易燃易爆危险货物界定依据不足、船闸耐火抗爆性有待深入评估等一些不容忽视的问题,还须在后续工作中予以解决。

    Abstract:

    We analyze the status of dangerous goods passing through the Three Gorges ship lock from 2015 to 2020 from three aspects,such as classification,management process and transportation characteristics of dangerous goods,use the EGM(1,1)model to predict the trend of the throughput of flammable and explosive dangerous goods in bulk in the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The results show that most of the dangerous goods are in bulk,flammable and explosive,and most of the dangerous goods are upward. The quantity of the dangerous goods types is decreasing year by year,and has been reduced to 32 in 2020. The predicted throughputs of bulk,flammable and explosive dangerous goods will maintain a slow growth trend in the 14th Five-Year Plan period. By the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan period,the throughputs of bulk,flammable and explosive dangerous goods will respectively reach 11.2 million tons and 8.5 million tons. There are obvious deficiencies in the management of dangerous goods passing through the lock,which need to be solved in the follow-up management,such as insufficient basis for defining flammable and explosive dangerous goods,and fire resistance and explosion resistance of the lock need to be further evaluated.

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许 鹏,何兴昌,郭 涛,等.三峡危险货物过闸运输现状分析及通过量预测[J].水运工程,2022(7):199-204.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-07-04
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