联合极值分布在码头顶高程计算中的应用
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Application of joint extremum value distribution in wharf top elevation calculation
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    摘要:

    介绍国际工程中常用的码头顶高程计算方法和二维极值分布,指出码头顶高程计算中主要考虑的变量是波高和水位。以几内亚铝矾土出口码头项目为例,提出波峰面高度重现期的概念。采用极值分布理论对水位和波高分别进行拟合,选择了合适的水位和波高联合极值分布模型。从案例计算结果对比分析发现,引入波峰面高度重现期的概念,采用水位和波高联合极值分布所计算的码头顶高程比采用二者单独一维极值分布计算的码头顶高程低。在波浪较小区域,该计算结论对EPC承包商控制成本、提高履约能力有积极作用。

    Abstract:

    The commonly used wharf top elevation calculation methods and the two-dimensional extreme value distribution in international engineering are introduced,and that the main variables considered in the wharf top elevation calculation are wave height and water level is pointed out. Taking the Guinea bauxite export project as an example,the definition of the wave crest height’s return period is proposed. The extreme value distribution theory is adopted to fit the water level and wave height respectively,and the appropriate joint extreme value distribution model of water level and wave height is selected. From the comparative analysis of the calculation results of the case,it can be found that the concept of the return period of the wave crest surface height is introduced,and the wharf top elevation calculated by the joint extreme value distribution of water level and wave height is lower than the wharf top elevation calculated by the two separate one-dimensional extreme value distributions. In the area where wave force is non-dominant,the conclusion benefits the EPC contractor by reducing the project cost and improving its performance ability.

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张 磊,解东升,施 凌.联合极值分布在码头顶高程计算中的应用[J].水运工程,2021(6):78-82.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-06-15
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