基于灰色模型GM(2,1)的大直径超长桩承载力预测*
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上海海事大学 海洋环境与工程学院,上海 201306

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上海海事大学科研基金项目(20120074);港口、海岸及近海工程校重点学科项目(A2120016001X)


Prediction of bearing capacity of large diameter super-length pile based on GM(2,1)
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College of Ocean Environment and Engineering, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China

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    摘要:

    基于8根大直径超长桩承载力现场试验资料,选用灰色模型GM(2,1)进行建模和预测,并与两类常用指数模型进行了比较。比较发现,用灰色模型GM(2,1)对8根大直径超长桩承载力进行预测时,相对误差一般为±0.8%;由后验差比值C和小误差概率P共同描述的后验差检验时,灰色模型GM(2,1)的效果为很好;GM(2,1)的预测效果明显好于两类常用指数模型。结果表明,GM(2,1) 对样本大小不限,资料的处理可以随时增加更新,保证较高的预报水平;用GM(2,1)预测大直径超长桩承载力是可行的。

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    Based on field testing data of 8 large-diameter super-length piles, this paper selected grey model GM(2,1) to predict pile bearing capacity, and carried out a comparison with two types of common exponential models. It was found that the relative error of the predicted value of pile bearing capacity was about±0.8% for 8 large-diameter super-length piles, and the validating effect was very good with the index p and index c; GM(2,1) was better than two types of common exponential models. It is concluded that GM(2,1) is a good model which doesn t limit sample number and can add new sample to assure higher-precision prediction; it is feasible to predict bearing capacity of large- diameter super-length pile based on GM(2,1).

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蒋建平.基于灰色模型GM(2,1)的大直径超长桩承载力预测*[J].水运工程,2012(6):169-173.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2012-06-20
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