考虑土体参数空间变异性的航道边坡可靠性分析*
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国家自然科学基金联合基金项目(U22A20600,U2034203);安徽省淮北港航投资有限公司科技项目(2023AFAWZ02179)


Analysis of channel slope reliability considering spatial variability of soil parameters
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    摘要:

    针对传统方法难以精准评估水位变化下砂质土坡稳定性,且忽略土体参数空间变异性与水致参数弱化耦合作用的问题,开展航道边坡可靠性研究。采用随机场描述土体多参数空间变异性,结合Python实现参数更新,基于Abaqus有限元软件与蒙特卡洛模拟,进行稳定性可靠度分析并与室内试验、传统方法对比。结果表明,新方法得出失效概率0.125,浅层滑动占比79%,与室内试验特征高度契合;水位上升降低失效概率,下降则加剧失稳,水位差从1 m增至4 m时,新方法失效概率增幅达80.3%;土体参数空间变异性影响权重由大到小依次为内摩擦角变异系数、互相关系数变异系数、渗透系数变异系数、黏聚力变异系数,其中内摩擦角变异系数对失效概率增幅达0.205。

    Abstract:

    In view of the problem that traditional methods are difficult to accurately evaluate the stability of sandy soil slopes under water level changes and ignore the coupling effect of spatial variability of soil parameters and water-induced parameter weakening,the reliability of channel slopes is studied.Random field is used to describe the spatial variability of soil multi-parameters.Python is used to realize parameter update,and stability reliability analysis is carried out on the basis of Abaqus finite element software and Monte Carlo simulation.The results are compared with indoor tests and traditional methods.The results show that the failure probability obtained by the new method is 0.125,with shallow sliding accounting for 79%,which is highly consistent with the indoor test characteristics.Rising water level reduces the failure probability,while falling water level aggravates instability.When the water level difference increases from 1 m to 4 m,the failure probability of the new method increases by 80.3%.From largest to smallest,the influence weights of spatial variability of soil parameters are the variation coefficient of internal friction angle,the variation coefficient of mutual correlation coefficient,the variation coefficient of permeability coefficient,and the variation coefficient of cohesion,among which the variation coefficient of internal friction angle increases the failure probability by 0.205.

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赵信海,施海波,周家宇,等.考虑土体参数空间变异性的航道边坡可靠性分析*[J].水运工程,2026(9):213-222.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-09-17
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