北江航道扩能升级工程经济和社会效益分析
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Analysis of economic and social benefits of Beijiang Waterway capacity expansion and upgrading project
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    摘要:

    针对北江航道扩能升级工程实施后缺乏经济和社会效益研究的问题,进行北江航道等级由300吨级提升至1 000吨级所带来的宏观经济效益、航运经济效益与社会效益的定量分析。采用“有无对比”分析方法,基于工程投资、港口吞吐量、通航船舶等基础数据进行测算。结果表明,工程投资直接拉动地区生产总值(GDP)增量135.62亿元,“十四五”期间间接带动的水运投资项目拉动GDP增量164.43亿元;2024年沿线韶关港、清远港诱发吞吐量对GDP的贡献值为7.06亿元,船舶大型化效益为2.06亿元,转移吞吐量节约货物运费4.82亿元(降幅60.2%),减少碳排放6.54万t(降幅79%);飞来峡枢纽二、三线船闸采用相互灌泄水布置每年省水量最大可达2.6亿m3。

    Abstract:

    To address the lack of research on the economic and social benefits following the implementation of the Beijiang Waterway expansion and upgrading project,a quantitative analysis is conducted on the macroeconomic benefits,shipping economic benefits,and social benefits resulting from the upgrade of the Beijiang Waterway from 300 DWT to 1,000 DWT.The “with and without comparsion” analysis method is used to calculate on the basis of fundamental data such as project investment,port throughput,and navigable vessels.The results show that the investment in this project directly drives a gross domestic product (GDP) increment of 13.562 billion yuan.During the 14th Five-Year Plan period,the waterway investment projects indirectly driven by this project contributed a GDP increment of 16.443 billion yuan.In 2024,the induced throughput of Shaoguan Port and Qingyuan Port along the waterway contributes 706 million yuan to GDP,while the vessel upsizing benefits at the two ports reach 206 million yuan.The cargo throughput shifted to waterway transportation saves 482 million yuan in freight costs (a reduction of 60.2%) and reduces carbon emissions by 65,400 tons (a reduction of 79%).Additionally,the mutual irrigation layout adopted for the second and third ship locks of the Feilaixia Hub can achieve a maximum annual water saving of 260 million m3.

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申其国,陈振春,王亚妮,等.北江航道扩能升级工程经济和社会效益分析[J].水运工程,2026(9):27-33.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-09-17
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