船闸工程边施工边通航安全风险分级动态评估*
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浙江省交通运输厅重大交通建设工程科研项目(2023-GCKY-05)


Dynamic assessment of navigation safety risk classification during concurrent construction and navigation of ship lock projects
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    摘要:

    增建二线船闸工程普遍采用边施工边通航模式,施工作业与船舶通航时空高度耦合,通航安全风险评估难度较大。为精准量化通航安全风险,构建了包含4个一级指标、17个二级指标的风险评估指标体系。结合马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛(Markov chain Monte Carlo method,MCMC)方法与优劣解距离法(technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution,TOPSIS),建立动态安全风险指数模型。通过MCMC方法表征不确定性指标的动态耦合关系,生成稳定系统状态样本;利用TOPSIS方法计算安全风险指数并划分风险等级。以杭甬运河新坝二线船闸闸首隔堤段施工为案例开展验证,结果表明,该工程通航安全风险主要集中于“一般”等级(占比74.7%)和“较低”等级(占比19.9%),整体安全水平可靠;施工周期、船舶流量、波高是影响通航安全的关键不确定性因素,多重不利因素叠加易导致风险等级劣化。研究提出的评估指标体系与模型可为同类工程的通航安全风险管控提供科学依据。

    Abstract:

    The construction of second-line ship lock extension projects generally adopts the mode of concurrent construction and navigation.Construction operations and ship navigation are highly coupled in time and space,making it difficult to assess navigation safety risks.To accurately quantify navigation safety risks,a risk assessment index system consisting of four first-level indicators and seventeen second-level indicators has been constructed.Combining the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method with the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS),a dynamic safety risk index model is established.The MCMC method is adopted to characterize the dynamic coupling relationships of uncertain indicators and generate stable system state samples.the TOPSIS method is used to calculate the safety risk index and classify risk levels.A case study was conducted on the construction of the separation dike section at the lock head of Xinba Second-line Ship Lock of the Hangyong Canal.The results show that the navigation safety risks of the project are mainly concentrated at the “general” level (accounting for 74.7%) and “low” level (accounting for 19.9%),indicating a reliable overall safety level.The construction period,ship traffic volume and wave height are the key uncertain factors affecting navigation safety,and the superposition of multiple adverse factors may cause the risk level to rise.The assessment index system and model proposed in this study can provide a scientific basis for navigation safety risk management and control of similar projects.

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张金锋,吴忠广,乔静音,等.船闸工程边施工边通航安全风险分级动态评估*[J].水运工程,2026(8):162-171.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-08-20
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