基于云模型的近零碳港口综合评价方法
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Cloud model-based comprehensive evaluation method for near-zero carbon ports
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    摘要:

    针对近零碳港口评价过程中碳排放数据存在模糊性与随机性导致量化困难的问题,采用文献频度统计筛选高频指标,结合港口能源活动特征与专家咨询法,构建涵盖保障机制、运营管理、业务活动及碳减排成效4个维度、10项二级指标及22项三级指标的评价体系。引入云模型理论,利用期望、熵和超熵3个数字特征确定权重并将定性评价转化为定量描述,对安徽省3个典型内河码头进行实证分析。结果表明:马鞍山港专业化干散货码头得89.6分为最高,但其熵与超熵值偏高,呈现“高分不稳”特征;合肥港国际集装箱码头和芜湖港国际集装箱码头分别得84.9和85.8分,主要受限于能源结构等硬件减排效率。研究成果验证了云模型在处理非确定性评价中的有效性,揭示内河港口差异化发展瓶颈,为制定精准减排策略提供定量依据。

    Abstract:

    In view of the challenges in quantifying carbon emission data due to fuzziness and randomness in the evaluation process of near-zero carbon ports,high-frequency indicators are screened using literature frequency statistics.Combined with the characteristics of port energy activities and the expert consultation method,an evaluation system is built,covering four aspects:safeguard mechanisms,operational management,business activities,and carbon reduction effectiveness,with ten secondary indicators and twenty-two tertiary indicators.The cloud model theory is introduced,utilizing three numerical characteristics of expectation,entropy,and hyper-entropy to determine weights and convert qualitative evaluations into quantitative descriptions.An empirical analysis is conducted on three typical inland ports in Anhui Province.The results show that the Ma’anshan Port specialized dry bulk terminal scores the highest at 89.6 points.However,its entropy and hyper-entropy values are relatively high,indicating a “high score with instability”.The Hefei Port International Container Terminal and the Wuhu Port International Container Terminal score 84.9 and 85.8 points,respectively,and are primarily constrained by hardware-related emission reduction efficiencies such as energy structure.The results of this study verify the effectiveness of the cloud model in handling non-deterministic evaluations,reveal the bottlenecks in the differentiated development of inland ports,and provide a quantitative basis for formulating precise emission reduction strategies.

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夏高响,沈保根,华连阳,等.基于云模型的近零碳港口综合评价方法[J].水运工程,2026(8):113-121.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-08-20
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