Based on the development status and characteristics of shipping in the lower Jinsha River,and focusing on factors such as future shipping market demand,cargo transportation organization modes,cargo flow density,and cargo flow volume and direction,this study employs a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods to systematically summarize the development features and trends of shipping in the lower Jinsha River.It forecasts future shipping demand by cargo category,conducts comparative analysis of cargo transportation organization modes within the basin,and scientifically analyzes the changing trends of cargo flow density as well as cargo flow volume and direction.Through the research,water transport is objectively positioned as playing a non-dominant role in the regional comprehensive transportation system of the lower Jinsha River.Meanwhile,it is concluded that a full-channel direct navigation scheme does not demonstrate significant transport advantages.It is recommended that investment in navigation structures in the lower Jinsha River region should adopt a conservative strategy.Based on scientific judgments regarding future shipping development scale,cargo flow density,and cargo flow volume and direction,it is proposed that shipping development in the lower Jinsha River should give priority to key waterway segments while taking into account the characteristics of segmental imbalance