李 贺,祁小辉,俞 灵.粤港澳大湾区战略下深圳港的发展建议[J].水运工程,2021,(3):41-46
粤港澳大湾区战略下深圳港的发展建议
Development advice for Shenzhen Port with strategy of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area
  
DOI:
中文关键词:  粤港澳大湾区  深圳港  VAR模型  脉冲响应分析
英文关键词:Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area  Shenzhen Port  VAR model  analysis of impulse response
基金项目:
作者单位
李 贺 中交第三航务工程勘察设计院有限公司上海 200231 
祁小辉 中交第三航务工程勘察设计院有限公司上海 200231 
俞 灵 中交第三航务工程勘察设计院有限公司上海 200231 
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中文摘要:
      伴随着粤港澳大湾区正式上升为国家战略,区域经济发展重心的新变化会对深圳港发展产生重要影响。通过系统梳理大湾区发展目标与战略部署,选取地区生产总值、产业结构、生态环保、固定资产投资与集疏运体系5个重要指标,分别与港口吞吐量构建双变量VAR模型进行脉冲响应分析,进而对深圳港提出发展建议。结果表明,地区生产总值、产业结构以及集疏运体系能够对港口吞吐量产生长期正向影响,生态环保能够对港口吞吐量产生长期负面影响,而固定资产投资对于港口吞吐量的影响较弱;优化港区布局、注重生态环保、加强通道建设等发展建议,可加快促进深圳港建设成为符合大湾区发展特色的新港口。
英文摘要:
      With the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area becoming a national strategy,new changes in the development focus of the regional economy will have an important impact on the development of Shenzhen Port. We systematically sort out the development goals and strategic deployment of the Greater Bay Area,select five important indicators such as regional GDP,industrial structure,ecological environmental protection,fixed asset investment,and distribution system,analyze the impulse response of port throughput by a two-variable VAR model,and propose the development advice of Shenzhen Port. The results show that the regional GDP,industrial structure,and distribution system can have a long-term positive impact on port throughput,ecological environmental protection has a long-term negative impact on port throughput,and fixed asset investment has a weak impact. Optimizing the layout of the port area,focusing on ecological and environmental protection,and strengthening the construction of channels can accelerate the construction of Shenzhen Port into a new port that meets the development characteristics of the greater bay area.
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